The world economy remains on shaky ground a
decade after the 2008 financial crisis, with trade wars a symptom of a deeper
malaise, according to UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2018: Power,
Platforms and the Free Trade Delusion.
decade after the 2008 financial crisis, with trade wars a symptom of a deeper
malaise, according to UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2018: Power,
Platforms and the Free Trade Delusion.
While the economy has picked up since early
2017, growth remains spasmodic, and many countries are operating below
potential, states the report. This year is unlikely to see a change of gear.
2017, growth remains spasmodic, and many countries are operating below
potential, states the report. This year is unlikely to see a change of gear.
“The world economy is again under stress,” UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi said. “The
immediate pressures are building around escalating tariffs and volatile
financial flows but behind these threats to global stability is a wider failure
– since 2008 – to address the inequities and imbalances of our hyperglobalized
world.”
immediate pressures are building around escalating tariffs and volatile
financial flows but behind these threats to global stability is a wider failure
– since 2008 – to address the inequities and imbalances of our hyperglobalized
world.”
According to the report, global trade
continues to be dominated by big firms through their organization and control
of global value chains with, on average, the top 1% of each country’s exporting
firms accounting for more than half its exports.
continues to be dominated by big firms through their organization and control
of global value chains with, on average, the top 1% of each country’s exporting
firms accounting for more than half its exports.
The spread of these chains contributed to a
rapid growth of trade from the mid-1990s up to the financial crisis, with
developing countries posting the fastest growth, including by trading more with
each other.
rapid growth of trade from the mid-1990s up to the financial crisis, with
developing countries posting the fastest growth, including by trading more with
each other.
But the report shows that countries have had
to trade more intensely to generate the same growth of output as in the past
and that too much of this trade has been unequal, with gains skewed in favour
of lead firms through a mixture of increased market concentration and control
of intangible assets.
to trade more intensely to generate the same growth of output as in the past
and that too much of this trade has been unequal, with gains skewed in favour
of lead firms through a mixture of increased market concentration and control
of intangible assets.
The report documents a general decline – with
China an exception – in the share of value added from manufacturing activities
in these chains and a rise in the share of pre- and post-production activities.
The rents captured at these ends of the chain have had a pronounced effect on
the distribution of income in all countries.
China an exception – in the share of value added from manufacturing activities
in these chains and a rise in the share of pre- and post-production activities.
The rents captured at these ends of the chain have had a pronounced effect on
the distribution of income in all countries.
UNCTAD believes that recent rounds of tariff
hikes, whether they amount to a trade war, will disrupt a trading system drawn
increasingly around value chains, although trade growth in 2018 will likely be
similar to that of 2017.
hikes, whether they amount to a trade war, will disrupt a trading system drawn
increasingly around value chains, although trade growth in 2018 will likely be
similar to that of 2017.
However, the knock-on effects of any serious
escalation could, through heightened uncertainty and reduced investment, bring
more damaging consequences in the medium term, the report says. These could be
particularly serious for countries already facing financial distress.
escalation could, through heightened uncertainty and reduced investment, bring
more damaging consequences in the medium term, the report says. These could be
particularly serious for countries already facing financial distress.
Moreover, because tariffs work by altering
the profitability of firms in the tradeable sectors, they carry distributional
consequences and affect demand in ways that require careful assessment.
the profitability of firms in the tradeable sectors, they carry distributional
consequences and affect demand in ways that require careful assessment.
As explained, free trade has shown itself to
be an ideological fig leaf that has curtailed policy space for developing
countries and cut away protections for working people and small businesses,
even as it protects the rent-seeking proclivities of big firms.
be an ideological fig leaf that has curtailed policy space for developing
countries and cut away protections for working people and small businesses,
even as it protects the rent-seeking proclivities of big firms.
In the real world, trade wars are a symptom
of a degraded economic system and multilateral architecture, the report says,
while the disease is a vicious circle of corporate political capture and rising
inequality where money is used to gain political power and political power is
used to make money.
of a degraded economic system and multilateral architecture, the report says,
while the disease is a vicious circle of corporate political capture and rising
inequality where money is used to gain political power and political power is
used to make money.
To avoid repeating the mistakes of the 1930s,
UNCTAD suggests returning to the Havana Charter, which was the initial attempt
to establish a managed multilateral trading system.
UNCTAD suggests returning to the Havana Charter, which was the initial attempt
to establish a managed multilateral trading system.
At a minimum, it would prioritize three
actions: tie trade discussions to a commitment to full employment and rising
wages, regulate predatory corporate behaviour and guarantee sufficient policy
space to ensure that countries can manage their integration in line with the
Sustainable Development Goals, adopted by the international community in 2015.
actions: tie trade discussions to a commitment to full employment and rising
wages, regulate predatory corporate behaviour and guarantee sufficient policy
space to ensure that countries can manage their integration in line with the
Sustainable Development Goals, adopted by the international community in 2015.
World Maritime News.
